“The desire to perform all the time is usually a barrier to performing over time.” - Robert Olstein
Last Week’s Overview
| Index |
Performance |
| TSX Composite |
0.40% |
| Dow Jones |
0.12%
|
| S&P 500 |
-0.13% |
| NASDAQ |
-1.24% |
Source: Bloomberg (July 16, 2026)
Weekly Insights
Each week, we break down the key events and market movements shaping the investing landscape. From economic data to investor sentiment and global headlines, this section captures what mattered most, and how it impacted markets.
Consumer Spending Remains a Key Pillar of Economic Growth
June retail sales rose 0.2% following an upwardly revised 1.0% gain in May, with seven of 13 categories posting gains. Growth was even stronger excluding gasoline stations, climbing 0.7% as lower fuel prices redirected household spending into discretionary areas like online retail, automotive, and electronics.
The control group that feeds directly into GDP calculations advanced 0.5%. With jobless claims at their lowest level since May, healthy employment and resilient household balance sheets continue to support the spending that underpins corporate earnings across a wide range of industries.
Source: Bloomberg (July 16, 2026)
Softer Inflation Expectations Support a More Constructive Rate Outlook
Softer-than-expected consumer and producer inflation reports prompted investors to meaningfully scale back expectations for further Federal Reserve rate increases, reflecting growing confidence that current policy may already be doing its job. Steadier rate expectations reduce uncertainty around borrowing costs for both businesses and households, while typically providing a healthier backdrop for stocks and bonds.
As inflation moderates and policy uncertainty eases, earnings growth, cash flow generation, and long-term business quality become the more important drivers of returns, which is exactly where our process is focused.
Source: Bloomberg (July 16, 2026)
The AI Investment Cycle Enters a More Disciplined Phase
Technology shares consolidated as investors reassessed how quickly large artificial intelligence investments will convert into earnings, though the broader market held up well with most S&P 500 companies still advancing.
This looks like a healthy reset of expectations after an exceptional run rather than a change in the long-term thesis, particularly with the four largest U.S. AI operators expected to spend more than $725 billion this year. That level of continued investment reflects real management conviction in AI as a durable driver of productivity and earnings, and second-quarter results should give us clearer evidence of how those dollars are converting into revenue.
Source: Bloomberg (July 16, 2026)
Key Drivers of Our Outperformance
We believe in transparency when it comes to where our outperformance is coming from. This section spotlights a top-performing company we hold, a sector where we've taken a winning position, and a strategy that has driven recent success across our portfolios.
- Top Company: KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR)
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- KKR gained 8.20% last week after a series of strategic announcements that reinforced confidence in the firm's long-term earnings trajectory, including the launch of Allyntra, a new engineered solutions platform serving the medical technology and precision manufacturing industries.
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- The firm also announced a A$400 million financing facility for Ampol, a clear demonstration of its continued strength in deploying capital across private credit and infrastructure. As one of the world's leading alternative asset managers, KKR is well-positioned to benefit from improving private market activity, rising institutional allocations to alternatives, and a more constructive M&A environment heading into its upcoming quarterly earnings release.
- Source: Optimize Asset Management (July 16, 2026)
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- Top Sector: Financials
Financials led our portfolio performance as capital markets activity continued to strengthen and investors grew more constructive on alternative asset managers and investment banks. Firms with meaningful exposure to private markets benefited from expectations of improving transaction activity, continued fundraising momentum, and resilient fee-related earnings.
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- Our exposure stays focused on businesses with durable cash flows, diversified revenue streams, and strong balance sheets that are built to perform through varying market cycles.
- Source: Optimize Asset Management (July 16, 2026)
- Top Quant Strategy: Size
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Our Size factor was the highest contributing style in the portfolio last week, with mega-cap leaders delivering broad and meaningful gains. Meta Platforms rose 12.96%, Amazon added 4.65%, Apple gained 4.50%, NVIDIA advanced 4.11%, and Microsoft climbed 3.21%, supported by ongoing AI investment and resilient corporate spending.
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When valuations are elevated, institutional investors consistently gravitate toward companies with scale, liquidity, proven earnings power, and durable competitive advantages, which is precisely the profile our Size strategy is designed to capture.
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Source: Optimize Asset Management (July 16, 2026)
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What To Look For Next Week
We also look ahead to the economic reports, events, and earnings that may influence the week ahead. From inflation and jobs data to corporate updates from key market players, this section keeps you informed on what's coming, and why it matters.
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- Canada Inflation Rate (Monday, July 20): Monday brings Canada's monthly inflation update, which measures how quickly prices are rising for everyday goods and services and shapes the Bank of Canada's thinking on interest rates. The most recent reading showed headline inflation at 3.2%, up from 2.8%. However, this was driven largely by a 33.2% rise in gasoline prices and a 9% increase in broader energy costs, while food inflation moved up to 3.8%. The encouraging detail is that the Bank of Canada's underlying core measures held steady at 2.0% on the trimmed-mean basis and 2.1% on the median basis, with shelter easing to 1.7%, which tells us the pickup is concentrated in energy rather than broad-based.
Sources: Trading Economics (July 16, 2026)-
- U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims (Thursday, July 23): Thursday morning's jobless claims report remains one of the most timely reads we get on the health of the job market. The latest data was encouraging: initial claims fell by 8,000 to 208,000, the lowest count in over two months and well below expectations of 217,000, while continuing claims declined by 16,000 to 1,805,000. Low levels of firing point to a labour market that remains robust, and steady employment supports the consumer spending and corporate profits that drive equity returns.
Source: Statistics Canada (July 16, 2026)-
- U.Canada New Housing Prices (Friday, July 24): Friday's new housing price data measures what builders are charging for newly built homes, giving us an early read on construction costs, land values, and affordability. The most recent report showed new home prices down 0.3% month over month, with house-only prices falling 0.4% and land-only prices down 0.3%, leaving prices 2.4% lower than a year ago. Easing new home prices improve affordability for buyers over time, and they help us gauge conditions across real estate, construction, and the Canadian financial institutions that lend into the housing market.
Source: Statistics Canada (July 16, 2026)
Sources: Bloomberg (July 16, 2026), Optimize Asset Management (July 16, 2026), Trading Economics (July 16, 2026), Statistics Canada (July 16, 2026).
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Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.