“Games are won by players who focus on the playing field – not by those whose eyes are glued to the scoreboard.”
— Warren Buffett
Markets experienced a volatile week, but the broader economic picture continues to show encouraging signs. The labour market remains resilient, inflation is gradually moving toward central bank targets, and energy companies delivered strong gains across portfolios.
While short-term swings may capture headlines, long-term investors are better served by focusing on underlying fundamentals. Here’s what shaped markets this week — and what investors should be watching next.
Weekly Performance (as of March 12, 2026)
- TSX Composite: -0.84%
- Dow Jones: -1.56%
- S&P 500: -1.52%
- NASDAQ: -1.78%
Source: Bloomberg
Despite modest declines across major indices, economic data released during the week painted a picture of stability beneath the surface.
Fresh labour market data reinforced the strength of the U.S. economy. New unemployment claims fell to 213,000, coming in better than expected, while the number of individuals continuing to receive benefits also declined.
This suggests that businesses are holding onto workers even amid global uncertainty.
That matters because consumer spending drives roughly two-thirds of the U.S. economy. A stable job market keeps income flowing to households, supporting consumption and helping companies maintain steady revenue growth.
For investors, a resilient labour market creates a solid foundation for corporate earnings — a key driver of long-term equity performance.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
Inflation data also delivered reassuring news.
The Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% year-over-year in February, unchanged from January and in line with economists’ expectations. Compared with the elevated inflation seen in recent years, this represents meaningful progress toward price stability.
While energy prices can still introduce volatility, the broader trend suggests inflation pressures are normalizing.
For policymakers, stable inflation gives the Federal Reserve greater flexibility in managing interest rates. For investors, it creates a more predictable environment for both stocks and bonds.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Markets did experience turbulence during the week. The S&P 500 declined roughly 1.3% as energy prices climbed and investors reassessed the macroeconomic outlook.
However, history shows that markets have repeatedly recovered from geopolitically driven pullbacks. In many cases, those who remained disciplined during volatile periods were ultimately rewarded.
Rather than signalling danger, these periods often create opportunities for long-term investors to add high-quality companies at more attractive valuations.
Our investment approach continues to focus on businesses with strong fundamentals, durable earnings power, and the ability to navigate uncertain environments.
Source: Bloomberg
Transparency is central to our investment process. Here are the areas that contributed most strongly to performance this week.
Weekly gain: +6.5%
Shell emerged as the top performer in our portfolios as global oil and natural gas markets strengthened.
The company’s diversified operations — spanning oil production, LNG trading, and fuel distribution — helped it benefit from strong commodity markets while maintaining operational stability.
Even after its recent gains, Shell remains attractively valued at 14.7× earnings, below many global peers. The company also continues returning capital through dividends and share buybacks.
For long-term investors, Shell represents the type of business that can benefit during strong energy markets while remaining resilient during weaker cycles.
Energy was the strongest sector across our portfolios this week.
Performance among major holdings included:
- Shell: +6.5%
- Chevron: +3.7%
- ConocoPhillips: ~+3%
- ExxonMobil: Positive weekly performance
A combination of disciplined global supply and resilient demand supported oil prices.
Beyond short-term movements, energy companies continue to generate strong cash flows, trade at attractive valuations, and provide both income and inflation protection — valuable characteristics in the current market environment.
Our Value strategy was the strongest contributor this week.
Energy companies led the gains, supported by our utility holding NextEra Energy, which added stability to the portfolio.
Value stocks tend to perform well when interest rates remain elevated and investors prioritize businesses generating cash today rather than promising profits far into the future.
With commodity prices firm and investor sentiment favouring cash-generative companies, our value positioning continues to deliver strong results.
Several key economic events scheduled for Wednesday could influence markets.
U.S. Producer Price Index
Wednesday, March 18
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures inflation at the wholesale level — essentially what businesses pay before those costs reach consumers.
January’s reading surprised markets, with producer prices rising 0.5% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year. Core producer prices (excluding food and energy) rose 0.8%, well above expectations.
Persistent wholesale inflation could push the Federal Reserve to delay potential rate cuts, which would affect both equity and bond valuations.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Bank of Canada Rate Decision
Wednesday, March 18
The Bank of Canada recently held its overnight rate steady at 2.25%, in line with expectations.
However, policymakers highlighted uncertainty related to potential U.S. tariffs, noting that trade tensions could influence future policy decisions.
Canada’s economy is projected to grow modestly — just over 1% this year — with inflation near the Bank’s 2% target.
For Canadian investors, the message is clear: the central bank is remaining patient while keeping its options open.
Source: Bank of Canada
Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes
Wednesday, March 18
The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its January policy meeting, offering deeper insight into policymakers’ views.
The committee appears divided:
- Some members support additional rate cuts if inflation continues falling.
- Others prefer holding rates steady for now.
- A minority even raised the possibility of future rate hikes if inflation remains stubborn.
The Fed’s benchmark rate currently sits between 3.5% and 3.75%, following three rate cuts last year.
Markets will scrutinize the minutes closely for clues about the timing and direction of the next policy move.
Source: Federal Reserve
Short-term market fluctuations are inevitable, but successful investing has always been about maintaining discipline and focusing on fundamentals.
Strong labour markets, moderating inflation, and resilient corporate earnings continue to support the broader economic outlook.
As always, our focus remains on helping clients achieve their long-term financial goals through disciplined investing and thoughtful portfolio management.