“In the world of business, the people who are most successful are those who are doing what they love.”
— Warren Buffett
Weekly Market Snapshot
Markets pulled back modestly this week as investors recalibrated expectations around interest rates and absorbed rising energy prices.
- TSX Composite: -1.42%
- Dow Jones: -0.44%
- S&P 500: -0.27%
- NASDAQ: -0.28%
Source: Bloomberg, March 19, 2026
Despite the short-term weakness, the underlying message from markets remains clear: economic fundamentals are holding up, and investors are adjusting—not retreating.
What Moved Markets This Week
1. Fed Patience Reflects Economic Strength
Expectations for rate cuts have shifted meaningfully. Markets are now pricing in a more patient Federal Reserve, with the 10-year Treasury yield holding near 4.27%.
This isn’t a sign of stress—it’s a reflection of resilience.
- Economic growth remains steady
- Inflation is still above target
- Policymakers are comfortable staying restrictive
What this means for portfolios:
A “higher-for-longer” environment continues to support:
- Attractive income opportunities in fixed income
- Strong performance from high-quality companies with pricing power
2. Rising Oil Prices Signal Healthy Demand
Oil prices climbed above $110 per barrel, contributing to short-term volatility and pushing shorter-term yields higher.
While that can create noise in markets, the signal underneath is constructive:
- Global demand remains strong
- Economic activity is healthy
- Inflation expectations remain anchored long-term
Investment takeaway:
Energy-linked equities benefit, and diversification remains critical in navigating cross-sector opportunities.
3. Bank Capital Changes Boost Financial Outlook
U.S. regulators proposed easing capital requirements for banks—one of the most meaningful shifts since post-2008 reforms.
- Large banks: ~4.8% reduction in capital requirements
- Mid-sized banks: ~5.2% reduction
This unlocks:
- Increased lending capacity
- Higher share buybacks
- Potential dividend growth
Why it matters:
A stronger, more flexible banking system supports both economic growth and shareholder returns—particularly positive for financial sector exposure.
Key Drivers of Performance
We believe in transparency—here’s what drove results this week.
Top Company: Arm Holdings (ARM)
Arm Holdings was a standout performer, rising 12.8% as momentum in AI infrastructure accelerated.
Unlike traditional chipmakers, Arm licenses the foundational designs powering:
- Smartphones
- Data centres
- AI-enabled devices
This asset-light, scalable model positions the company at the center of the semiconductor ecosystem.
Why we like it:
Arm benefits from the entire AI ecosystem—not just one product cycle—making it a uniquely durable growth story.
Top Sector: Financials
Financials led performance, supported by:
- Stable interest rates
- Increased capital markets activity
- Strong fee-based revenue streams
Key contributors included:
- BlackRock
- Goldman Sachs
- KKR
- Fairfax Financial
Outlook:
Diversified financial businesses remain well-positioned to deliver consistent results in today’s environment.
Top Strategy: Value
Our Value strategy was a strong contributor, driven by:
- Cash flow-generating businesses
- Strength in financials and energy
- Attractive valuations relative to earnings
In a higher-rate world, companies with durable cash flows outperform—and that’s exactly where this strategy is focused.
What to Watch This Week
Looking ahead, several key economic releases will help shape market direction:
U.S. Jobs Data — Tuesday, March 24
- Hiring pace: ~9,000 jobs/week in late February
- Slower than prior months, but still stable
Why it matters:
The labour market remains a key pillar of consumer spending and economic confidence.
U.S. Manufacturing — Tuesday, March 24
- 7 consecutive months of expansion
- Slight softness in exports due to tariffs
- Strong domestic demand
Takeaway:
A resilient manufacturing sector supports both industrial and technology holdings.
Weekly Jobless Claims — Thursday, March 26
- Most recent reading: 205,000 claims (below expectations)
Signal:
Employers are holding onto workers—a strong indicator of economic stability.